Good Chance For Barack
Assessing
Obama’s Prospect for 2012
President
Obama faces tough bid for re-election. The nation’s economic outlook is
considerably darker than during his first campaign for the White House, but one
of his biggest advantages is that he has a variety of paths to victory in key
battleground states. He is unlikely to repeat his margin of 365 electoral votes
of 2008. But he only needs 270 to win a second term, allowing him to lose a
handful of states that he carried four years ago and still be victorious.
The
president’s disapproval ratings, in addition to the large number of Americans
who say the country is on the wrong track, have stirred serious alarm about Mr.
Obama’s prospects. The president’s central argument for re-election is built
around fairness and pushing back against the assertion that he is not up for
the job and could not improve economic circumstances in a second term.
New York Times polling guru Nate Silver, in his first 2012
presidential election forecast, gives
President Barack Obama a clear advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney heading
into the summer.
If
the election were held in very near future, Silver writes, Obama would have an
80 percent chance of winning re-election. But things could change quickly —
Silver's model projects that Obama has a 60 percent chance of winning in
November.
Some
of Silver's model's key projections: One, if the election were held in very
near future, Obama would win approximately 300 electoral votes to Romney's 238.
He would win the popular vote by a 50.5 to 47.9 percentage. Two, in the
November 6 forecast, Silver's model has Obama winning roughly 291 electoral
votes to Romney's 247. Three, popular vote in the November 6 model: Obama
50.5, Romney 48.4. Four, Together, there's about a 5 percent chance either
Romney or Obama could theoretically win the Electoral College and lose the
popular vote.
If
inflation averages what it has for the past 13 quarters; and if economic growth
picks up a bit from where it has been this past quarter (January-March 2012),
the equation predicts that Obama would receive 52.5 percent of the two-party
vote, and be 85 percent sure of getting a majority. If inflation worsens over
the next 6 months, and the economy grows more slowly than it has in any of the
past four quarters, the prediction is that he receives only 49.0 percent,
yielding only 34 percent certainty of attaining a majority of the two-party
popular vote.
So
a lot depends on what happens between April and November. An economic forecast
of this election ranges from a fairly solid victory for Obama (although
somewhat narrower than his win in 2008) to a close loss (Ford’s loss to Carter
in 1976). But the best current forecast is for a cliffhanger Obama victory, a
bit less narrow than Nixon over Humphrey in 1968 (or than Gore’s “victory” over
Bush in 2000).
Mr. Obama held the edge, 45 percent to 40 percent. Mr.
Obama's approval rating two years into his term (49 percent) was higher than two of the last two three
presidents to win a second term - Presidents Reagan and Clinton. (President George
W. Bush had a 59 percent approval rating at the midpoint in his first term.)
And as Time's Michael Scherer notes, even those who disagree with Mr. Obama tend to
like him - a crucial factor in winning the independents who broke from the
Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections. The fact that 84 percent of Americans
(according to an Associated Press poll last month) call Mr. Obama a likeable
person speaks to his advantage among the casual voters who may not go to the
polls in a midterm year but will cast ballots in 2012.
Then there's the prospect of a strong third-party candidate
making waves in the general election. If the Tea Party backs a challenger to a
Republican nominee it sees as too moderate, the conservative vote could be
split, making Mr. Obama's path to victory that much easier. Without Ross Perot,
it's worth remembering, Mr. Clinton might never have been president.
Also important is the power of incumbency. As Mark McKinnon
and Myra Adams note, "In the last 56 U.S. presidential elections,
31 have involved incumbents; 21 of those candidates have won more than one
term." Incumbents have the advantage of being a known personality - and
even voters not entirely sold on a president tend to favor the known over the
unknown.
Is
the Stock Market Voting for Obama? “The
close relationship between President Obama’s chances of re-election and the
level of the S&P 500 appear to suggest that the stock market favors a
Democrat as president,” says Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Toronto-based
Capital Economics.
Dales
is convinced Obama will get re-elected as long as the S&P 500 remains above
1200 (the index would have to drop 15% from current levels to hit that mark).
If history is any indicator, the market isn’t likely to lose all of its gains
through the rest of the year. The S&P 500 is up 12% this year. And in 13 of
the last 15 presidential elections, the S&P 500 has rallied during the
final seven months of those years, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
Measurements
of chances of repetition by different scales are endorsing his reelection. 365 electoral votes in 2008 can go
down to 270 to win. On economic (inflation condition) parameters, he is
winning. Statics proves incumbent president has more than 66% of winning
prospect. Stock market indicators are supporting his win. Therefore, if his
election chances was bright in 2008, Barack has good chances of repetition.
Heera
Lal
(Views
are personal and based on different sources)
Ref:
6. http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/obama-election-odds-better-think-says-hirsch-181506895.html
No comments:
Post a Comment