Wednesday, December 19, 2012
Political Marketing -Gujarat Election Prediction: Modi will Win by more Than 117
BJP is in power in Gujrat. Cong is ruling party at center. Modi’s re-election is no loss for Cong. But its defeat in 2014 will damage Rahul Gandhi’s prospect of future PM. Modi’s wining and becoming PM candidate to polarize voters is of great help to Cong. This guiding factor is compelling Cong to ensure Modi’s win.
Modi’s defeat will weaken his candidature. Modi as PM candidate is favorable to both Cong and BJP. Polarization will be main plank for both the parties in 2014. Therefore, Cong is trying to see him winner by diplomatic election management.
Cong is afflicted with many dieses. Among serious are corruption and misgovernace. It can’t sail in 2014 with the good deeds of present government. Though Cong is trying to divert public attention, but it will not be of any help.
Bringing FDI as reform is old style politics of imposition. This style is not workable now. Bihar and UP’s election proved this. Public demand-driven supply will work. Corruption reduction measure is in great demand. Here Government has not taken any convincing measure. Cash transfer will help to some extent. But it will be neutralized by subsidy withdrawal particularly of cooking gas.
Cong is trying its best to establish Rahul the next PM candidate. With this in focus and eye on 2014, Cong is chalking out its strategy. Defeat means a great damage to Rahul’s future prospect in particular. Hence Cong is ready to leave part (Gujrat) to achieve whole (New Delhi).
Cong can’t ride its own work. Incumbency factors are adversely against. Only option left out is to polarized electorate. To achieve this and weaken the opposition BJP, Modi is helpful. In Cong, there are no aspirants for PM and hence no dispute. One prospective candidate is already shifted to Rashtrapati Bhawan respectably to make way to 7RCR completely clear for Rahul.
BJP has many aspirants for PM. So, dispute has cropped in for this post. Modi is trying hard to be PM candidate from BJP. It will be premature to say anything definitely. But among all prospective candidates, he is mass leader. Therefore, it is expected; he will win the race. This will increase invisible infighting in BJP and allies-Nitish may leave. And it will weaken the opposition.
Modi’s image will help in polarizing the voters. His candidature as PM is helping both way- wakening opposition and polarization. A defeat of Modi in Gujrat means weakening of his PM candidature. This will be the end of the game. Winning will serve both purposes of Cong. So, it is trying to see his repetition.
BJP as party has lost momentum with Nitin Gadkari’s case. Public is of opinion that no party has will to work on public demand of corruption reduction and political reforms. In BJP ruled states, the performances are not outstanding to sell them as political product in national election. Hence polarization is option for BJP too.
Under current situation, Cong is hard press to lose Gujrat and give a walkover to Modi. Cong requires this to tilt social and emotional situation in its favor. This is the reason Rahul is absent and not working in Gujrat like Bihar and UP. But I doubt, this strategy will work in 2014.
Based on above logic, political marketing analysis predicts he will secure more seats than 2007. He got 117 in 2007. In 2012, he will get more than 217. The reason is very simple. He is having full command in Gujarat with almost no opposition.
The very astonishing part of his this election is that he is getting stiff oppositions from his own party BJP form all levels. But getting tacit blessings from main opposition. This unique combination will repeat him with more than old tally of 2007.
Heera Lal( views are personal and vase on different sources)