Sunday, December 30, 2012

Cyrus: New Commander- in- Chief of TATA


         
Cyrus P Mistry took charge of TATA group on December 28, 2012. There are huge excitements and speculations inside and outside the organization. Profit maximization is the motto of a business organization. But it is not applicable to TATA. This makes it different and international brand? A perusal of Tata’s statement endorsed this difference.  
Jamsetji N. Tata (Founder, Tata Group, 1868) said “In a free enterprise, the community is not just another stakeholder in business, but is in fact the very purpose of its existence.”  J. R. D. Tata stated “The Tata philosophy of management has always been and is today more than ever, that corporate enterprises must be managed not merely in the interests of their owners, but equally in those of their employees, of the customers of their products, of the local community and finally of the country as a whole.” 

 In 2005, Ratan Tata, dreamed One hundred years from now, I expect the Tatas to be much bigger than it is now. More importantly, I hope the Group comes to be regarded as being the best in India — best in the manner in which we operate, best in the products we deliver and best in our value systems and ethics. Having said that, I hope that a hundred years from now we will spread our wings far beyond India…” 

We are living in boundary less world. Information is fast flowing with internet as carrier which moves with speed of light. Openness is rule of the day. Now we can get the copy of official note sheets under RTI. In such fast and open environment cut throat competition prevails. What are the strengths which help to flourish business? Is it sole motto of profit maximization? Or maximizing highest turn-over at any cost?
Be it social or business sector, real power and confidence come from its values and ethics? Ethics and values are the foundations of the TATA group unlike others.  There two (like RBC and WBC) are in the blood of the organization of TATA. If blood quality is good, naturally body will be stout and productive.
An Assocham survey said $100 billion Tata Group is perceived to be India’s best-known global brand within and outside the country. The survey was conducted not only in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Hyderabad, but also in London, New York and Singapore. "Ratan Tata occupied the well-deserved iconic status who had taken the group from largely an Indian family-owned business house into a professionally managed global conglomerate," the survey said.
Now Cyrus a civil engineer with MS in management is in limelight of national and global industry sector.  He took the charge from a new big height crated by Ratan. Market is buzz with many speculations and excitements. Some among many which appeared in news recently need perusal.
Mathuradas Morarji, an 84-year-old investor who holds shares of most of the Tata Group companies, some for several decades now, says "Cyrus comes from a business family, unlike the Tatas which is a family of industrialists. The challenge for him personally would be to transform from a businessman to an industrialist because he has to look after not just one or two companies but several and from a large number of industries,"
Tata has Operations in more than 80 countries across six continents with exports to 85 countries. Its Turnover profile has 58 per cent of revenues from overseas. Global economic slowdown is immediate challenge for him to sail through it successfully. Nimesh Kampani, chairman, JM Financial, a key challenge before Mistry would be to identify the core sectors in which the group should see itself as among the top three players in the relevant market - domestic or global - and planning a gradual and profitable exit from the other sectors.
The biggest challenge for him would be to turn around the flagship firm Tata Steel, which is burdened with Rs 60,000 crore of debt after it acquired Corus in 2007.  Revisiting Nano and unlocking its potential to the fullest would also be a priority. Mistry's urgent attention is to oversee Indian Hotels' revised offer to acquire British hospitality group Orient-Express. 
The Historian Plutarch states that "the sun, which, in the Persian Language is called Cyrus".  Cyrus is the given name of a number of Persian kings. An industrialist who knows him well, described as intuitive, incisive, driven and humble, with the right leadership traits. However, there are others who believe Cyrus may have to put in some extra efforts as he makes this transition.  
            No one doubts his capability and calibre to make a mark. Deepak Parekh, chairman, HDFC said “I have seen and observed  Cyrus Mistry since he was a boy. Having seen him grow... grow in stature over the years, I am confident that he will be able to take the Tata Group to a higher level, both domestically and internationally,"  An Assocham survey concludes that about 77 per cent participants said they are confident that Ratan Tata’s successor Cyrus Mistry will be able to steer the group well.
Cyrus is a simple, focused, silent and down to earth business leader. No negative remark has come against him.  His acceptance is good. His timing to accession is on his side.  An energetic and experienced leadership provides momentum to any entity to send it to a new higher level. At 44, he is full of energy to move the TATA group. He is well experienced by practicing. Both along with leadership traits will enable him to meet the expectations and challenges. In all probability, beyond any doubt he will come out with flying colours.
Among many challenges, the biggest one before him is how to maintain the dreams of Tata’s- ethics and values. Under present circumstances when scams and corruption are rampant, taking the organisation to new milestones with ethics and values is daunting task for him. Tata is comparable to Bill Gates and Warren Buffet in philanthropist activities. Being international player he needs to strengthen it further.
 He has to bring some innovative ideas on ground for the benefit of masses. Here he has to act as visionary. ICT, IT and social media the modern toys of public are the Chariots to ride upon.  Political management service industry is a big green field. This is a huge service industry to be tapped with.  Rural needs can be another pasture/ green field seeking ICT enabled social marketing concept of Philip Kotlar.
Recent social movements by Anna and others have left lessons for public and private both. Corporate under CSR start programs for developing social leaders at different levels- state, district, booth or village. Old activities are not noticeable and effective. These newly developed leaders will purge our polity and facilitate good governance in society. Hence delivery would improve. Cyrus has to weigh this societal action to start without any delay. This new idea will make him a social engineer and a complete man.
Heeer Lal (Views are personal and based on different sources)


Ref:

Friday, December 28, 2012

3D CM Aspiring For PM


                                              
                             New Political Tools: Internet President Vs 3D CM
Social media made Obama president in 2008. It was an innovation how to use social media in an election. Modi used 3D technology in campaign for the first time worldwide. This helped him to win third time in a series in a very odd situation. Modi set a precedent before the world like Obama. Obama success made social media a new tool of politicians.  Modi’s innovation made 3D technology an additional campaign tool for political actors.
Growing awareness and melting boundaries make it difficult for the public managers, leaders and actors to connect, engage, and communicate with the voters and public to the level of satisfaction that they desire. For the politicians, voters are all-in-all who decide their fate on ‘election day’ and provide them the mandate to represent them at all forums. In this light, a voter plays the role of king maker (it’s like Bhagya Vidhata in Indian context).
   Two aspects are very important to be a successful politician. First, how a political leader/ manager can be in constant and effective touch with voters and public by using social media in addition to all existing tools. And second, how to provide free, fast, effective and satisfactory services to them.
UN data says that USA was fouth after Sweden, Denmark and Norway in the
2008 e-Government Readiness Index. The US president Obama did something unique by using social media tools, so, he is known as new-media president.
It is not his nimble use of Facebook and Twitter that makes him so. The fact is that he is the first president who has grasped the possibilities of today’s high-velocity, high-density, highly variegated media landscape. He was very successful with this tool and it is now a model for other campaigns. His management skills and campaign methods are model for the politicians around the world.
After election, President Obama is using this well-tested tool-social media- for running his government, and here too he is successful like his election. Social media as a new tool in India is required because growing awareness among masses has increased many folds which have increased public demands and expectations from politicians.
Furthermore, the Indian election process is time-bound. In a limited time frame, a political actor has to manage all the activities to the satisfaction level of the public, government, election commission of India (ECI), and other stakeholders. This is a tough task to accomplish and manage now. The real story begins after the election, how to run the government successfully to satisfy the public.
In 2004, the incumbent BJP launched aggressive nation-wide India Shining Campaign. First time it allocated 5% of campaign budget for e-campaign. Though BJP’s new approach didn’t fetch victory, but they took the lead in this new experiment. This set a new trend in Indian politics and resulted in allocation of 5-10% of election budget for e-campaign in later elections.
In 2009 election, both Congress and BJP targeted urban youth. While congress focused on youthful appeal of Rahul Gandhi, BJP adopted 360 campaigns inspired by the Barack Obama campaign.  Journalists, citizens, opinion makers and NGOs are using facebook and other social media sites.
USA denied visa to Modi. He relied on a live satellite telecast to address the Gujarati community in America on “Gujarat Day,” Aug. 31, since 2005. In October 2012, on a Sunday, using holographic technology and satellite link-ups, a three-dimensional image of          Mr. Modi addressed tens of thousands of people at four public rallies in Ahmedabad, Baroda, Rajkot and Surat, from a studio in the state capital of Gandhinagar. Mr. Modi is believed to be the first Indian politician to use 3D technology during an election campaign.
Virtual Modi comes to Gujarat thanks to Musion, a British company, which has given the Indian filmmaker Mani Shankar and his company, Nchant 3D, a license to use its technology in nine South Asian countries. Details of Nchant’s agreement with Mr. Modi are “confidential,” Mr. Shankar said in an interview, but he added that he was the chief designer of Sunday’s show.
“It was a first of its kind in the world, as never before have four simultaneous holographic shows been done using satellite broadcast,” he said. “To the best of my knowledge, not even a single holographic show has been done so far using satellite.”
The technology doesn’t come cheap. , BJP spokesperson told Chief Minister planned to spend about 50 million rupees (about $1 million) on 3D campaign addresses. The cost will be borne by the party, and not the state. The Congress Party has lodged complaints with the Election Commission, asking for an investigation into the costs and who is paying for the technology.
Mr. Shankar further said celebrities like Madonna, Mariah Carey, Lady Gaga, Richard Branson, Al Gore, David Beckham, Prince Charles and King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia have used 3D technology before to reach large audiences in multiple locations. But Mr. Modi’s adoption may herald a new era of 3D use in India. Narendra Modi can’t go and address rallies at all the 182 constituencies. But with the help of the 3D holographic technology he could reach many places and meet thousands of people.
Modi and Obama share similarities in style of functioning and managing the political affair. Both experimented new tools in campaign. Others are: One, both are well read, experienced and knowledgeable politicians. Two, both are ICT savvy and using it in good governance. Three, both follow personality politics. Four, in opposition Obama had Hillary while Modi have Advani and others. Five, both are authoritative and decisive personality and famous orators for their effective speeches. Seven, both are self-made and like changes.
Senator Obama elected pesident in 2008.  He never served as governor like CM in India. His open government initiative with internet use gave his second chance in a very tough situation. A comparison shows Modi is better placed than Obama as he is third timer CM.
He is only 3D politicians worldwide. Rest are 2D- even Obama. This gives him a lead over others. Public opinion is growing in his favor gradually. Public see in him next Atal Bajpai of BJP. By IT innovations, he is trying to woo friends and foe alike for next PM ship. He is applying all concepts of social and political marketing with ICT tools.



Heera Lal(Views are personal and based on different sources)







Ref:
1. Jennifer Senior (2009) The Message Is the Message, nymag.com
12.http://www.facebook.com/pages/Uttar-Pradesh-Youth-Congress/185597054628
16. http://www.internetworldstats.com/asia/in.htm
18. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Division for Public Administration and Development Management, United Nations, e-Government Survey 2008
19. Rajeev Gowda ( 2007) ICTs AND POLITICAL ORGANIZING IN INDIA
 24. http://india.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/23/meet-virtual-modi-gujarat-chief-ministers-latest-tech-push/

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Lobbying: Boon Or Bane

                  
        Lobbying is prevalent in both social and commercial sectors. Its positive or negative effect will depend on its use. But, it has a more negative perception than positive.  Recent FDI permission in retail in India brought it into limelight. The history of lobbying is a controversial one, and is quite often seen as a ‘dirty word’. And in some languages the word ‘lobbyist’ has particularly negative connotations.
       Wal-Mart filed a lobbying disclosure report with the US Senate. This surfaced the issue. The company has spent close to $25 million (about Rs 125 crore) since 2008 on its various lobbying activities. Activities are related to "enhance market access for investment in India". This disclosure gave a political agenda to opposition against government in India.
         A on line business dictionary defines lobbing as “The act of attempting to influence business and government to create legislation or conduct an activity that will help a particular organisation.” It generally signifies an attempt to influence government decisions, traditionally by targeting legislators or regulators and government officials. 
        Lobbing has a long grand history. In 1792 in USA, the Virginia veterans of the Continental Army hired William Hull, one of the country’s first lobbyists, to lobby for additional compensation. Worldwide UK, France, European Union, Germany, Slovenia, Australia, Canada, Israel, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Georgia have lobbying industry.
        Lobbing regulations are in place to render government officials more accountable. Regulations promote more transparency of lobbyist actions. The role of regulations is to make the public aware of the interest behind the proposals and link between the lobbyists and policy makers.
        Some political systems choose not to adopt regulating lobbying. There are three main reasons behind it: one, barriers to entry to participation in the policy process; two, formulating ‘good policy’ confidential negotiations sometimes necessary; three, costs of hiring staff to monitor it and later enforcing the rules.        .
        Notwithstanding the rarity of regulating lobbyists, nine political systems throughout the democratic world with lobbying rules in place: Australia, Canada, the EU, Germany, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Taiwan, and the US.                                                                                                                                 
        Lobbying is, however, facing a crisis of legitimacy. It is big business, particularly for those representing companies and nations. Even civil society lobbying, once conducted by passionate amateurs, has become a sophisticated industry pursuing an extraordinary range of aims. The sheer numbers of lobbyists and the resources at their command threaten to overwhelm or co-opt politicians and public servants.
           Obama banned on the influence of lobbyists in 2009 themed around changing the Washington establishment. A federal judge upheld the attempt by President Barack Obama to cut down the influence of lobbyists, ruling that Obama was within his authority when he barred them from serving on government boards.
        Lobbying has taken the shape of a lucrative and growing business. Roughly $ 3billion dollars is spent in America yearly on lobbing. Google spent over $9 million on lobbying in 2011 and is on track to spend well over $13 million in 2012. Facebook is also upping its lobbying efforts. In the first two quarters of 2012,Facebook spent $1.6 million on lobbying, significantly more than what it spent on lobbying in all of 2011.
        However besides its negativity, it has positivity too. A United Nations Global Compact report ‘Towards Responsible Lobbying’ published in 2005 highlights its white prospects. The report’s forward says the right to voice our concerns and interests, and thereby influence public policy, is fundamental to democracy.        
       Spheres of influence and action have changed. Now actors from one sector are increasingly involved in areas that were formerly regarded as the preserve of other sectors. The vision of responsible lobbying is visible and legitimate multisector collaboration about how best to achieve the goals society holds in common.
         In today’s inter-dependent global economy, leading companies and other high-profile organizations want to understand and manage a wider range of opportunities, impacts, relationships and risks than ever before.
         It is increasingly recognised that the health of the global economy depends on a foundation of global security, spreading affluence and good governance, and that the private sector’s capacities and creativity can help to achieve these goals.      
        In short, business is becoming an integral part of the governance process at all levels from the local to the global. Increasingly, therefore, companies’ reputations, licence to operate, and ultimately accountability, require them to demonstrate consistency in performance on issues like human rights, environmental impacts and corporate governance. Lobbying is an important component of this accountability and consistency.
       So it is time for lobbying to come out of the shadows, and for companies to take a more responsible approach that is accepted by policy makers, in the attempts of both to contribute positively to sustainable development.      
      Policy makers increasingly accept and often actively solicit the views of business and NGOs in shaping public policy on major economic, social, environmental and ethical challenges worldwide.
      The governments must be open to the positive role of business in public policy, without offering favoured industries or the business community in general, undue influence in relation to other stakeholders. Responsible lobbying will change the jaundiced view of business involvement in public policy. 
      Winning friends and inducing people is part and parcel of democracy. Indian companies – including Reliance Industries, Tata Sons, Ranbaxy and Wipro – have hired lobbyists in the US to influence local politicians on issues ranging from visas to defence deals. Unlike in India, lobbying – persuading legislators and officials to make regulations favouring a particular commercial or political interest – is perfectly legitimate in the US.
       According to US law all organisations that spend more than $11,500 per year on such activities have to file reports with the authorities. Walmart clarified the money was spent within the US, and that none was used in India. But the outcry caused by the revelation has pressurised the government to agree to a judicial probe into the matter.
      This is not the first time that ‘Lobbygate’ has caused a ruckus in India. In 1995 the American power company, Enron, faced flak for spending a substantial sum on the ‘political re-education’ of local legislators to get approval for its ultimately ill-fated Dabhol generating plant. More recently, the so-called Radia-tapes raised the lobbyist bogey.
      India has no lobbying regulations, but it is not illegal either. Well-established Lobbying industry operates in a largely opaque environment. Lobbying industry and outsiders demand to spell out clear laws for the practioners. But it hasn’t happened so far.
       Dilip Cherian, founder of a public relations agency, Perfect Relations, and also a well known lobbyist, describes it differently. He says lobbying is an “iterative” process and lobbyists function as a bridge between companies and the government. “We help our clients in understanding the policy environment of the country.        
          What is the government’s take on lobbying? The Planning Commission of India has set up an expert group to look into the processes that comprise lobbying. Arun Maira, member of Planning Commission, said, “We will be considering various interests of all the stakeholders involved.
         Jug Suraiya writes in his article ‘Divided lobby’ why not make lobbying legal in India, make it transparent and bring it above the table, not below it? Would legalised, and therefore publicly accountable, lobbying add to India’s rampant corruption? Given the scale and scope of graft in India, it seems hardly possible that any measure open to public scrutiny, could add to corruption.
            Indeed camouflaged or disguised lobbying – using money to woo people – is prevalent in India, and it’s not just about the underhand giving and taking of cash bribes. For instance, recently information and broadcasting has spent 1,768.55 crore on advertisements tom-tomming the many ‘achievements’ of the government. What is that but the government lobbying for itself, and using taxpayers’ money to do so?
           Now time is ripe for India to take steps to legalise lobbying by enacting a law or framing some strict guidelines. As Spill over message of this step would be a fight against corruption. Regulation will also help in making lobbying white and legitimate it in the eye of public. It is both and we need to use it for boon.
Heera Lal (Views are personal and based on different resources)



 Ref:
18. http://www.hks.harvard.edu/syllabus/DPI-351M.pdf

Political Marketing: Turning Indian Politics


                               
Gujarat Assembly election was a semifinal for 2014. Modi of BJP defeat Cong for the third time.  Gujarat was not a simple assembly election like Himanchal Pradesh. Recent elections of Bihar, UP and Gujarat are indicator and proof of turning of Indian polity.

Modi is a prospective PM candidate. This simple news made Gujarat assembly election comparable to national election. Modi is adorned by foes and friends with many negatives. The blames are communal, authoritative, personality-politics, non-acceptability, and skewed development in state.
Apparently these negatives look true. But he is a very excellent photographer. He knows how to have a positive (photograph) with a negative. This he has proved in recent past.

He started converting communal negative by Sabhawana sabha. Now result proves his success. BJP won 24 seats which have more than 15% Muslim voters this time. This is six more than 2007. In Muslim dominated areas BJP did well. In Bharuch it won all five. Around Ahmadabad it won 17 out of 21. Likewise, it won 15out of 16 in Surat and 11 out of 13 in Baroda. This is when he didn’t give any ticket to Mulsims.
He convinced them by developments. He developed Muslim areas. Industrialization provided them jobs. Bread and butter are first among all.  He assured them of no communal politics. He created a message of developmental politics keeping all issues aside. Efforts of changing platform brought fruits. Muslims forgetting old owes, moved on a new path of development and voted Modi.

He is called authoritative. Any authority without this quality can’t deliver. He delivered by his authoritative style of functioning. This annoys many and invites criticism. But in our democratic system it is must if used for public welfare. This has more positive than negative if used with a view of delivery. It will prove a fatal if used for self. The sum of this is in his favor which proved him a performer.

Personality politics is the culture of the day. Leaders are trying to be bigger than party. US president do this type politics. His personality is bigger than his Democratic party. This is needed to prove first among equals. In BJP, Atal’s personality was bigger than the party. The only difference is Atal is more moderate than the Modi. This leads to his criticism.

He has poor acceptability at national level. There is truth in it. Time is his side to enhance acceptability among party and allies. If he can Change Muslims by changing himself, he can improve on this issue. No doubt he made a start just after counting was over. He went to meet his old friends turn arch rival Kehhubhai patel. He knows how, when to change. By 2014, he will overcome this problem. Here he needs to make efforts like his communal image shedding endeavor.

Among BJP, he is first among equals for PM candidates. His perception for PM candidate in his party is better than others in public. With winning Modi’s candidature perception and support has increased. The best part is that he is far ahead in this race in the party. Modi has his own image among pubic and better than his party competitors.

In congress, Rahul is in focus for 2014. He has all weakness without any strength in sight. His only strength, he is a Gandhi of Gandhi family. This was a strength is past. But politics have changed the political landscape. This doesn’t mean Rahul can’t do or not having qualities. But so far, it is not proved. And without proof how public would believe.

Rahul is mostly batting from periphery. He never played from center. If played very limited and seasonal, results were adverse. Bihar and UP elections are some example to it. He is sufferer of spill over of current governments negativity for which he is not responsible.

His danger is more from inside. His party has not embraced the change. It is doing politics in old fashion. President Obama came to power by adopting the change. Modi is riding and rising by change. But Cong is not willing to change, hence lagging in the race of 2014.

Congress is trying to get back the traditional vote banks. They are trying to take back SCs vote bank by Reservation Bill and Muslims by showing fear of Hindu face of Modi. This was norm when nations were having boundaries. In the boundary less world and internet age with 3D technology how it will bring result.  Congress is trying to give a ride to a Fresh Rahul in a vintage car.

One more issue needs deep thought. When Cong was single party and player, there was no competition. Monopoly was working. Now when BJP is national party comparable to it and regional parties many in number with better performance than ManMohan, how Cong is dreaming to make Rahul PM in 2014. Why Congress in not taking these hard ground realities into account to embrace change to win the competition.
In 2009, Cong had a trump card- Good work of PM ManMohan acted as this card. But this time all positive is negative. Scams, non performance, sluggishness, inactions are some cards to be in sight.

What cong think positive. Are really they? Withdrawal of subsidy of LPG, FDI, cash transfer of subsidy, giving mobile phone to poor etc are flags to be hosted.  The best among is cash transfer but it will be a seed till 2014. Then one can’t expect the fruits form it. To be tree to bear fruits it will take its own time.

Cong is thinking and bringing reforms in Government. But it is not reforming its party and thinking style to accommodate on going fast changes. How one can win the war with old thinking weapon (traditional politics) and weak house ( prikarima culture). This is the new area where cong needs to work to update and to make itself strong.
 Ref:
http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Swaminomics/entry/three-major-hurdles-in-modi-s-march-to-7-rcr-delhi

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Political Marketing -Gujarat Election Prediction: Modi will Win by more Than 117


                      Congress Ensures Modi’s Win                  

                                                         
                                    Political Marketing               
       BJP is in power in Gujrat. Cong is ruling party at center. Modi’s re-election is no loss for Cong. But its defeat in 2014 will damage Rahul Gandhi’s prospect of future PM. Modi’s wining and becoming PM candidate to polarize voters is of great help to Cong. This guiding factor is compelling Cong to ensure Modi’s win.  
       Modi’s defeat will weaken his candidature. Modi as PM candidate is favorable to both Cong and BJP. Polarization will be main plank for both the parties in 2014. Therefore, Cong is trying to see him winner by diplomatic election management.
      Cong is afflicted with many dieses. Among serious are corruption and misgovernace. It can’t sail in 2014 with the good deeds of present government. Though Cong is trying to divert public attention, but it will not be of any help.
      Bringing FDI as reform is old style politics of imposition. This style is not workable now. Bihar and UP’s election proved this. Public demand-driven supply will work. Corruption reduction measure is in great demand. Here Government has not taken any convincing measure. Cash transfer will help to some extent. But it will be neutralized by subsidy withdrawal particularly of cooking gas.
      Cong is trying its best to establish Rahul the next PM candidate. With this in focus and eye on 2014, Cong is chalking out its strategy. Defeat means a great damage to Rahul’s future prospect in particular. Hence Cong is ready to leave part (Gujrat) to achieve whole (New Delhi).
      Cong can’t ride its own work. Incumbency factors are adversely against. Only option left out is to polarized electorate. To achieve this and weaken the opposition BJP, Modi is helpful. In Cong, there are no aspirants for PM and hence no dispute. One prospective candidate is already shifted to Rashtrapati Bhawan respectably to make way to 7RCR completely clear for Rahul.
     BJP has many aspirants for PM. So, dispute has cropped in for this post. Modi is trying hard to be PM candidate from BJP. It will be premature to say anything definitely. But among all prospective candidates, he is mass leader. Therefore, it is expected; he will win the race. This will increase invisible infighting in BJP and allies-Nitish may leave.  And it will weaken the opposition.
     Modi’s image will help in polarizing the voters. His candidature as PM is helping both way- wakening opposition and polarization. A defeat of Modi in Gujrat means weakening of his PM candidature. This will be the end of the game. Winning will serve both purposes of Cong. So, it is trying to see his repetition.
      BJP as party has lost momentum with Nitin Gadkari’s case. Public is of opinion that no party has will to work on public demand of corruption reduction and political reforms. In BJP ruled states, the performances are not outstanding to sell them as political product in national election. Hence polarization is option for BJP too.
     Under current situation, Cong is hard press to lose Gujrat and give a walkover to Modi. Cong requires this to tilt social and emotional situation in its favor. This is the reason Rahul is absent and not working  in Gujrat like Bihar and UP. But I doubt, this strategy will work in 2014.
Based on above logic, political marketing analysis predicts he will secure more seats than 2007. He got 117 in 2007. In 2012, he will get more than 217. The reason is very simple. He is having full command in Gujarat with almost no opposition.
The very astonishing part of his this election is that he is getting stiff oppositions from his own party BJP form all levels. But getting tacit blessings from main opposition. This unique combination will repeat him with more than old tally of 2007.

Heera Lal( views are personal and vase on different sources)

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Congress Ensures Modi’s Win

                  
                                                         
                                             Political Marketing               
       BJP is in power in Gujrat. Cong is ruling party at center. Modi’s re-election is no loss for Cong. But its defeat in 2014 will damage Rahul Gandhi’s prospect of future PM. Modi’s wining and becoming PM candidate to polarize voters is of great help to Cong. This guiding factor is compelling Cong to ensure Modi’s win.  
       Modi’s defeat will weaken his candidature. Modi as PM candidate is favorable to both Cong and BJP. Polarization will be main plank for both the parties in 2014. Therefore, Cong is trying to see him winner by diplomatic election management.
      Cong is afflicted with many dieses. Among serious are corruption and misgovernace. It can’t sail in 2014 with the good deeds of present government. Though Cong is trying to divert public attention, but it will not be of any help.
      Bringing FDI as reform is old style politics of imposition. This style is not workable now. Bihar and UP’s election proved this. Public demand-driven supply will work. Corruption reduction measure is in great demand. Here Government has not taken any convincing measure. Cash transfer will help to some extent. But it will be neutralized by subsidy withdrawal particularly of cooking gas.
      Cong is trying its best to establish Rahul the next PM candidate. With this in focus and eye on 2014, Cong is chalking out its strategy. Defeat means a great damage to Rahul’s future prospect in particular. Hence Cong is ready to leave part (Gujrat) to achieve whole (New Delhi).
      Cong can’t ride its own work. Incumbency factors are adversely against. Only option left out is to polarized electorate. To achieve this and weaken the opposition BJP, Modi is helpful. In Cong, there are no aspirants for PM and hence no dispute. One prospective candidate is already shifted to Rashtrapati Bhawan respectably to make way to 7RCR completely clear for Rahul.
     BJP has many aspirants for PM. So, dispute has cropped in for this post. Modi is trying hard to be PM candidate from BJP. It will be premature to say anything definitely. But among all prospective candidates, he is mass leader. Therefore, it is expected; he will win the race. This will increase invisible infighting in BJP and allies-Nitish may leave.  And it will weaken the opposition.
     Modi’s image will help in polarizing the voters. His candidature as PM is helping both way- wakening opposition and polarization. A defeat of Modi in Gujrat means weakening of his PM candidature. This will be the end of the game. Winning will serve both purposes of Cong. So, it is trying to see his repetition.
      BJP as party has lost momentum with Nitin Gadkari’s case. Public is of opinion that no party has will to work on public demand of corruption reduction and political reforms. In BJP ruled states, the performances are not outstanding to sell them as political product in national election. Hence polarization is option for BJP too.
     Under current situation, Cong is hard press to lose Gujrat and give a walkover to Modi. Cong requires this to tilt social and emotional situation in its favor. This is the reason Rahul is absent and not working  in Gujrat like Bihar and UP. But I doubt, this strategy will work in 2014.

Heera Lal( views are personal and vase on different sources)