The
capital of our country is in full swing to elect its Chief Minister(CM).
Election process is on. Analysts and media persons are trying to predict who will be the
next CM. A logical and fare analysis predicds BJP's CM.
BJP
is the ruling party at centre with Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister (PM). In the last
election, Aam Admi Party(AAP) formed the government with the help of Congress.
AAP did not get clear mandate, albeit its image of a party with a difference.
For
the first time in the history, a CM sat on protest against the ruling party at
Centre- the Congress. Clashes betweenthe Government of India(GoI) and the Delhi Government
hampered the progress. Ironically, the Congress- supported government of AAP was at
fight with it on different issues. And ultimately, AAP opted for election after 49
days in power and passed a resolution to this effect in the assembly.
Awakened
Delhi voters need progress, prosperity and good governance (GG). In this 2015
election, contest is between BJP and AAP. BJP replaced Congress at Centre in
2014. If AAP wins, again same situation
of friction will come in picture. Two Governments of different parties will
clash as in the past. Therefore, the progress will hamper. To avoid this, Voters have been left with only one option to vote for BJP to meet their interest.
AAP
came in life about two years ago as a platform to fight against corruption.
General perception was in its favor that it would fight against corruption.
Other parties were not having credit as compared to AAP. On this count, it was
a party with a difference. Hence, it had a significant lead over others.
But
gradually, AAP became a party alike others. Now, it doesn't has the tag of
party with a difference. Therefore, glamour of the party and attraction towards
it faded rapidly.
GG is
an issue in Indian elections. The public like and love it. It is a political
product in high demand. Corruption and GG are inversely proportional to each
other. If one increases the other will automatically decrease.
On GG
front, PM Modi is making an all out effort to fulfil his promises which he made
in election of 2014. He is trying to contain corruption, by taking different
measures. He is following policy of Zero Tolerance on corruption. As result, Modi has acquired the tag of fighting against corruption. Now, AAP and BJP
are on an equal footing on this issue. Now, AAP is not unique on this ground like
past.
Voters
evaluate options and compare possibilities for their interests before making-up
mood for whom to vote. Delhi-2015 election is witnessing two main issues. The first is Development and the second is GG. The party which is able to fulfil these
two together, would get the seat of CM.
Under
present circumstances, it is the BJP which is able to meet the expectations of
voters on both fronts. On the issue of GG both
parties are equally good. But on the issue of Development, the BJP in centre has a lead over
AAP. Voting AAP would again create frictional situation like past. Hence,
development would hamper.
GG
and Development are key deciding factors of voting pattern. These two issues have the
heaviest impact. Development is compelling the voters under present circumstances
to vote for BJP to avoid frequent friction and clashes. Therefore, on above logical reasoning, this time
Delhi will opt BJP.
Ref:
1. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/delhi-polls-bjp-dumps-modi-electioneering-model-projects-kiran-bedi-close-contest-likely-with-aap/articleshow/46003887.cms
2. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/delhi/Easy-win-for-BJP-in-Delhi-predicts-poll/articleshow/45105150.cms
3. http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/523992/kejriwal-dares-bedi-is-india-ready-for-a-presidential-style-debate.html
4. http://www.hindustantimes.com/arvindkejriwalacommonmaninpolitics/aam-aadmi-party-report-card-what-kejriwal-s-govt-achieved-in-its-49-days--in-power/article1-1184165.aspx
5. http://heeralalpcs.blogspot.in/2013/12/aaps-future.html
6. http://heeralalpcs.blogspot.in/2014/01/protest-by-chief-minister.html
7. http://heeralalpcs.blogspot.in/2013/11/politics-of-change.html
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